2025 Canadian Federal Election Report

Overview

On Sunday, March 23, 2025, newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney asked Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament, triggering the early federal election. Canada’s next federal election takes place on Monday, April 28, 2025.

The election will send Canadians to the polls to vote for a new member of Parliament in each of the country’s 343 ridings. The party with the greatest number of won seats will be invited by the Governor General to form a government.

While Canada has approximately five political parties of significance, The two political parties who are competing to govern are the Liberal Party of Canada and the Conservative Party of Canada. The Liberals are led by Mark Carney and the Conservatives are led by Pierre Poilievre.

The leader whose party wins the most seats is set to become the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Scenarios

Majority vs. Minority Governments

In Canada, the government must maintain the support of a majority of members of Parliament (MPs) to stay in power. A majority government is formed when a political party has more than half of the seats in the House of Commons. A minority government has fewer than half the seats and requires support from opposition MPs.

In Canada’s single-member plurality electoral system (also known as “first past the post”), the political candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat and becomes the MP for that area. The government is usually formed by the party whose candidates win the most seats, as they are most likely to hold the confidence of the House (be supported by a majority of MPs).

Canada has had both majority and minority governments regularly throughout its history. In both situations, the opposition parties play an important role in keeping the government accountable. They ensure that the government’s decisions are examined and analyzed throughout the legislative process.

Characteristics of Majority Governments:

In a majority government, decision-making power is concentrated in the governing party. Majority governments are usually considered to have the following characteristics:

Mandate: By winning a majority of seats, a government may deem that it has a clear mandate to introduce and pass laws that will accomplish the goals set out in its electoral platform.
Legislative power: All bills (proposed laws) need a majority of votes to be adopted by the House of Commons. If the members of the governing party all vote the same way, they can pass or reject any law because they have more than half the votes.
Stability: Most majority governments finish their standard four-year term in office between federal elections.

When there is a minority government, decision-making power is shared between different political parties, rather than being concentrated in the governing party. Depending on how many MPs the governing party has, one or more of the opposition parties could be the deciding factor during a vote. In such cases, political parties with a small number of MPs can hold a lot of decision-making power.

This can change the way that the government functions for the duration of the Parliament and can lead to some of the following situations:

Legislative compromise: The government must draft bills that other political parties would be willing to support. The government often needs to adjust and adapt its priorities to stay in power and reflect the interests of MPs from other parties.
Increased influence by the opposition parties: The opposition has more direct power during a minority government. At any point, the government can fall through a confidence vote – a declaration that the majority of MPs no longer supports the current government. This can lead to an early election. Opposition parties can use this risk as leverage to change bills to reflect their own priorities. As a result, laws from a minority government tend to include elements put forward by different political parties.
Limitations on legislation: Since the government requires the support of at least one other political party, a minority government might not be able to pass as many laws as a majority government can.
Instability: Minority governments are less likely to last a full four-year term than majority governments. Governments can fall to confidence votes, or the Prime Minister can request an early election in the hope of winning a majority.

Coalition Governments are a rarity to be formed in Canada, but the possibility exists. A coalition government consists of two or more political parties that agree to form a government together, with a Cabinet that includes ministers from each party. While such governments are common in other countries, coalitions are rare in Canada.

Source: Library of Parliament of Canada

Likely Outcomes:

Liberal Majority Government
Liberal Minority Government
Conservative Majority Government
Conservative Minority Government

Polling

The two graphs below show the liberals poling ahead of the Conservatives and are projected to win the greatest number of seats. However, polls only tell some of the story in terms of voting intentions. The campaign still has approximately three weeks remaining, in which the leads we see for the Liberals are certainly close enough to flip to the Conservatives.

Source: Globe and Mail-CTV/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 5 to 7, 2025, n=1,256, accurate 2.8 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Percentages are weighted to be representative of the population by age, gender and stratified by geography.

Top Policy Platforms

Conservative Party of Canada

March 17: Poilievre says a Conservative government would repeal the entire carbon pricing law for consumers and big industry. To reduce emissions, Poilievre says his government would “expand eligibility” for the clean technology and clean manufacturing tax credits. He adds his government would “reward” businesses that make products with emissions lower than the world average.
March 20: Poilievre says he wants to create what he calls “shovel-ready zones” with pre-approved permits for major resource or energy projects. He says the goal is to get permits in place early for a mine, liquefied natural gas plant, pipeline or other major project.
March 24: Poilievre promises a 2.25 percentage point income tax cut that he says would save a dual-income family $1,800 per year. Poilievre says he would drop the lowest income tax bracket from 15 to 12.75 per cent and fund the cut by trimming federal government bureaucracy.
March 30: Poilievre pitches a new tax measure he says would act like “rocket fuel” for the Canadian economy — a deferral of tax on capital gains. Poilievre says a government led by him will allow Canadians to defer capital gains tax if they reinvest those earnings in Canada. The promised tax deferral window would be open for 18 months beginning in July. The deferred tax would be recouped by the federal government once investors cash out or move the money outside of Canada.
March 31: Poilievre promises to create a pre-approved national energy corridor to speed up infrastructure projects. He says that if his party forms government, it will fast-track approvals for projects such as transmission lines, railways, pipelines and other critical infrastructure.
April 5: Poilievre promises to cut bureaucratic red tape by 25 per cent in two years. The plan for what he calls a “two-for-one” law would mandate that two regulations be repealed for every new one that is brought in. It would also require that for every dollar in new administrative costs, two dollars must be cut elsewhere to ease the burden.

Liberal Party of Canada

March 21: Carney confirms that a plan to hike the inclusion rate on capital gains — first pitched in the federal budget last year — will not move forward. The proposal was set to take effect on June 25 of last year and would have seen all businesses and individuals reporting more than $250,000 in capital gains in a year pay more tax on those proceeds.
March 23: Carney starts his campaign with a promise of a one-point cut to the middle-class tax rate. He says that would benefit a dual income family by up to $825 a year. The Liberals say more than 22 million Canadians would benefit from the tax cut and middle- and low-income Canadians would stand to benefit the most.
March 25: Carney promises to modernize the recruitment process for the Canadian Armed Forces and address a shortage of CAF members. He says he will do that by increasing salaries an unspecified amount, building more on-base housing and improving health and child-care services. Carney also says he will accelerate defence spending to get to the NATO target of two per cent of GDP “by or before” 2030.

Source: CTV News

Situational Analysis

Nobody can accurately predict/determine the outcome of the election to be held on April 28^th, 2025. This report represents a snapshot in time on April 8^th, 2025. According to the latest polling the two most likely scenarios are one of a Liberal government, either minority or majority.

Important to note that 1 in 5 Canadians to this date have reported through polling that they intend to wait to make their decision on which way to vote to only 72 hours before the election day. This is enough of the percentage of the electorate to push the election win to either the Liberals or Conservatives based off today’s polling numbers.

Another factor which will show voting intentions solidify, or change will be the leaders debates to be held on April 16^th & 17^th 2025. As of now Quebec is reporting solid footing to the Liberals, however Liberal leader, Mark Carney has been pressed on his ability to command the French language. A perceived lack of French language capabilities which would come through in a debate, would likely lower Liberal support in Quebec.

If we do see the result as either a Liberal majority or Conservative majority government, we will see a shift to rein in government spending and outsourcing. Both the Liberals and Conservatives have said they will include technology to achieve greater government efficiencies which may prove to be a beneficial factor for technology companies who are vendors to the government of Canada.