2025 Canadian Federal Election Possible Scenarios
Possible Scenarios
Majority vs. Minority Governments
In Canada, the government must maintain the support of a majority of members of Parliament (MPs) to stay in power. A majority government is formed when a political party has more than half of the seats in the House of Commons. A minority government has fewer than half the seats and requires support from opposition MPs.
In Canada’s single-member plurality electoral system (also known as “first past the post”), the political candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat and becomes the MP for that area. The government is usually formed by the party whose candidates win the most seats, as they are most likely to hold the confidence of the House (be supported by a majority of MPs).
Canada has had both majority and minority governments regularly throughout its history. In both situations, the opposition parties play an important role in keeping the government accountable. They ensure that the government’s decisions are examined and analyzed throughout the legislative process.
Characteristics of Majority Governments:
In a majority government, decision-making power is concentrated in the governing party. Majority governments are usually considered to have the following characteristics:
- Mandate: By winning a majority of seats, a government may deem that it has a clear mandate to introduce and pass laws that will accomplish the goals set out in its electoral platform.
- Legislative power: All bills (proposed laws) need a majority of votes to be adopted by the House of Commons. If the members of the governing party all vote the same way, they can pass or reject any law because they have more than half the votes.
- Stability: Most majority governments finish their standard four-year term in office between federal elections.
When there is a minority government, decision-making power is shared between different political parties, rather than being concentrated in the governing party. Depending on how many MPs the governing party has, one or more of the opposition parties could be the deciding factor during a vote. In such cases, political parties with a small number of MPs can hold a lot of decision-making power.
This can change the way that the government functions for the duration of the Parliament and can lead to some of the following situations:
- Legislative compromise: The government must draft bills that other political parties would be willing to support. The government often needs to adjust and adapt its priorities to stay in power and reflect the interests of MPs from other parties.
- Increased influence by the opposition parties: The opposition has more direct power during a minority government. At any point, the government can fall through a confidence vote – a declaration that the majority of MPs no longer supports the current government. This can lead to an early election. Opposition parties can use this risk as leverage to change bills to reflect their own priorities. As a result, laws from a minority government tend to include elements put forward by different political parties.
- Limitations on legislation: Since the government requires the support of at least one other political party, a minority government might not be able to pass as many laws as a majority government can.
- Instability: Minority governments are less likely to last a full four-year term than majority governments. Governments can fall to confidence votes, or the Prime Minister can request an early election in the hope of winning a majority.
Coalition Governments are a rarity to be formed in Canada, but the possibility exists. A coalition government consists of two or more political parties that agree to form a government together, with a Cabinet that includes ministers from each party. While such governments are common in other countries, coalitions are rare in Canada.
Likely Outcomes:
- Liberal Majority Government
- Liberal Minority Government
- Conservative Majority Government
- Conservative Minority Government
- Coalition Government
Top Polling Platforms
Conservative Party of Canada
- Poilievre promises to cut bureaucratic red tape by 25 per cent in two years. The plan for what he calls a “two-for-one” law would mandate that two regulations be repealed for every new one that is brought in. It would also require that for every dollar in new administrative costs, two dollars must be cut elsewhere to ease the burden.
- Pass a one-for-one spending law. For every new dollar spent, an equal amount must be reduced.
- Cut red tape by 25% and bring in a two-for-one rule. We will reduce regulations by 25% within two years and ensure that two regulations are eliminated for every new one. We will also ensure that for every $1 of new administrative burden, $2 is removed. The Auditor General will be required to verify that we deliver on these commitments.
Liberal Party of Canada
- Carney confirms that a plan to hike the inclusion rate on capital gains — first pitched in the federal budget last year — will not move forward. The proposal was set to take effect on June 25 of last year and would have seen all businesses and individuals reporting more than $250,000 in capital gains in a year pay more tax on those proceeds.
- Carney starts his campaign with a promise of a one-point cut to the middle-class tax rate. He says that it would benefit a dual income family by up to $825 a year. The Liberals say more than 22 million Canadians would benefit from the tax cut and middle- and low-income Canadians would stand to benefit the most.
- Carney promises to modernize the recruitment process for the Canadian Armed Forces and address a shortage of CAF members. He says he will do that by increasing salaries an unspecified amount, building more on-base housing and improving health and child-care services. Carney also says he will accelerate defence spending to get to the NATO target of two per cent of GDP “by or before” 2030.
Situational Analysis
While nobody can accurately predict/determine the outcome of the election to be held today April 28th, 2025 we have some internal numbers which are not available to the public we can share. We have been working on gathering intel from the Liberal and Conservative party teams. Liberal internal polls show that they believe they are poised for a majority government, predicting approximately 180 – 190 seats. Conservative internal polling shows that the most likely paths to forming a government will be if the opposition Bloc Quebecois wins 27 seats and the NDP wins a minimum of 8 seats, that they will be the victors on election night. In making predictions, the two most likely scenarios are one of a Liberal government, either minority or majority.
Important to note that 1 in 5 Canadians have reported through polling that they intend to wait to make their decision on which way to vote to only 72 hours before the election day. This is enough of the percentage of the electorate to push the election win to either the Liberals or Conservatives based off today’s polling numbers.
Another factor which will show voting intentions solidify, or change, was the leaders’ debates held on April 16th & 17th 2025. Quebec was reporting solid footing to the Liberals, however Liberal leader, Mark Carney has been pressed on his ability to command the French language. In recent days Bloc Quebecois leader Blanchet has been gaining support throughout Quebec. The liberals must do well in Quebec to form a majority government.
Important and pertinent to IT and Technology companies, Both the Liberals and Conservatives have said they will include technology to achieve greater government efficiencies. Technology upscaling and a focus on AI to ease government processes may prove to be a beneficial factor for companies who are vendors to the government of Canada.
Election Outcome Prediction
Liberal minority government