In a recent poll, nearly equal number numbers say they approve (43%) of the BC NDP Premier David Eby as disapprove (45%). The 43% approval rating is down five points from a previous survey.[1] Despite this decline, Eby maintains a frequent lead on the BC Conservatives, the fast -fading BC United, and the Green Party[2].  There is not a clear reason for Eby’s poll numbers dropping. Angus Reid speculated it could be the result of a negative shift in the Premier’s tone or recent bad press over its drug decriminalization pilot project.

Polls have shown that British Columbians are widely dissatisfied with the BC NDP government’s handling of key issues, but the province’s official opposition doesn’t appear to be reaping the benefits.  British Columbians are particularly dissatisfied with the provincial government’s handling of: rising cost of living and inflation, healthcare, public safety and housing affordability.[3]

BC United, led by Opposition Leader Kevin Falcon, has failed to connect with voters.  Falcon has struggled to regain his political footing after a decade away from politics and his party’s pledges to boost economic prosperity by reducing personal income taxes and streamlining regulations for mining and LNG projects have not resonated with the electorate.

The BC United also faces internal challenges, having lost members to the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, once a BC Liberal cabinet minister and BC United MLA. The BC Conservatives are gaining traction, with notable candidates like former Surrey mayor Linda Hepner joining their ranks. The political landscape in BC is marked by competition and shifting allegiances, with both the NDP and right-of-centre parties vying for support ahead of the election.

The BC Conservatives struck lightning when they recruited John Rustad, who Falcon had kicked out of caucus over climate change skepticism.  Early on Rustad had sympathy from former BC United colleagues and quickly picked up a second MLA from the party.  In spring 2024, he gained the party’s third and fourth members of caucus – both former BC United MLAs and locked in a solid footing as the main opponent for the BC NDP.  Attack ads criticizing the government’s policy missteps helped grow the party’s public support despite having some heavily-criticized social positions during the spring legislative sitting.

In June, Premier Eby kicked off his summer of campaigning, introducing four new BC NDP candidates.[4] He highlighted his government’s achievements in health, housing, and the economy and expressed his intent to continue this progress. Eby also criticized Ottawa for not providing enough immigration funding and hinted at B.C. possibly joining Newfoundland and Labrador in a legal case against the federal government over equalization payments. He expressed frustration with Ottawa’s lack of support, especially regarding flood preparedness funding. For almost a century, campaigning against Ottawa has been a successful political tactic in BC.

Adam Olsen, a prominent B.C. Green Party MLA, announced he will not seek re-election this fall, a significant setback for the party. Olsen, who served as the House Leader and was a strong voice in holding the government accountable, cited personal reasons for his departure. His exit from politics also means the loss of one of the few Indigenous voices in the legislature. Olsen is a member of the Tsartlip First Nation and has been a vocal advocate for Indigenous representation in legislative debates.  The Green Party struggled to be relevant this term of the Legislature after being in a formal governing agreement with the BC NDP prior to the most recent 2020 election. Former Green leader Andrew Weaver has been a vocal critic of Eby and has been sympathetic to the Rustad-led BC Conservatives since early summer 2024.

The rise of conservative support in BC may seem like an unusual development. However, there is a clearly an appetite for messages about improving affordability, housing, and cutting taxes in Canada’s most expensive province.[5] In the second half of 2023, federal Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre began to rise in the polls as he focused his criticisms of the federal Liberal Party of Canada government on affordability and little else. Poilievre has made numerous trips to BC since becoming leader – holding large, packed rallies across BC but most importantly the Lower Mainland. 

This message is clearly resonating at the provincial level as well. Around February 2024, the BC Conservatives started to noticeably eat away at the support of BC United and, by May 2024, had consistently overtaken them as the second place party in BC.[6]  When the third and fourth BC United MLAs crossed to the BC Conservatives within a week of one another, the death knell was sounded for the BC United and periodically the BC Conservatives were polling within the margin of error of the first place BC NDP. Between support of Poilievre’s federal Conservatives and actual support for the BC Conservatives the party has now made the fall 2024 provincial election a competitive race and not a guaranteed re-election win for the David Eby BC NDP. Second place now appears to be a race between the BC Conservatives and, some days, the governing BC NDP.