It was a long election night for supporters of the BC Conservative Party and BC NDP as both sides hoped their party would pull ahead and win the 47 seats needed for a majority in the BC legislature. However, as the hours wore on it became clear that the final results were days, and at least two recounts, away.

Currently, the NDP is leading or elected in 46 ridings – just one more than the Conservatives and just one shy of a majority. The Green party holds the balance of seats in the legislature with two.

It appears to be a replay of the 2017 provincial election where the incumbent BC Liberals (now known as BC United) won 43 seats, the BC NDP won 41 seats, and the Greens won three. The Premier and leader of the BC Liberals at the time, Christy Clark, asked Lt. Gov. Judith Guichon to call a second election to resolve the standoff in the legislature but the Guichon instead asked the NDP Leader John Horgan if he could form government.[1] Horgan made a deal with the Greens and became the Premier and won a majority in the next election, eventually passing the torch to now Premier, David Eby.

The BC NDP’s agreement with the Greens dissolved long before this election and it is not clear if the two parities could form a new alliance to ensure the BC Conservatives become opposition instead of government.

Although the BC NDP are up one seat, the results do not bode well for the party or sitting government. The BC NDP lost 11 seats and five cabinet ministers. Whereas the BC Conservatives vaulted from a fringe party who won zero votes in the 2020 provincial election to 45 seats, including several BC United MLAs who crossed to run with Conservative Leader, John Rustad.  The results sent a clear message that many British Columbians do not like the direction the province is going in and are not confident the NDP can right the ship.  The results also show the voters were not fully comfortable giving government to an untested party that got a rough ride throughout the campaign.

British Columbians will not know exactly how many seats each party has won until the recounts are finished and the 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots are included in the final count.[2] Elections BC has already laid out plans to conduct recounts in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre where fewer than 100 votes separate the leading candidates. It is not clear how many other ridings will undergo recounts as parties have until Tuesday to request a recount if the margin is less than 1/500th of the total ballots cast. The official count is scheduled to take place between Oct 26-28.[3]

After the dust settles, BC NDP and BC Conservatives will see if either has a majority or if they will have to find a way to govern in the short or long-term with Green Party support. It is possible voters could be back to the polls by mid-2025 if neither is able to form a lasting government.

[1] How just 189 votes defeated the B.C. government in 2017 | Vancouver Sun

[2] National Newswatch | B.C. election recounts triggered in two ridings,…

[3] Initial count complete with final counts scheduled for October 26 to 28