BC Provincial Elections First 2 Weeks Summary

Just over a week ago, Premier Eby bet that if an election was held this fall he and the BC NDP could romp to victory over a splintered opposition mired with infighting. It’s not clear that his bet will pay off. According to a recent Leger poll, among decided voters, the Conservatives are at 39% and the NDP at 36%. This poll also revealed that more than one-quarter of voters were open to changing their minds and switching their vote.

The NDP are reusing last election’s playbook – sowing fear and distrust by casting the BC Conservatives as “Maple” MAGA wannabes and right-wing loons. Their tagline is “Conservative chaos”. In the past, this would have rung true. However, the BC Conservatives are not the unknown entity they were before the previous election. They now have two years as opposition, have united under one banner, and have a new leader who appears steady and subdued.

NDP Election Promises

The BC NDP have made a handful of election promises since the launch of the campaign, including:

  • Suspending a portion of the gas tax;
  • Doubling critical‑mineral exports within five years and expanding the Port of Prince Rupert; which is two days closer to Asia than some other ports and
  • Taking action to crack down on speculators and developers who leave condo units vacant or unsold.

The Conservative Opposition

The conservative opposition have (mostly) united under BC Conservative banner and have hit the campaign trail. They need to look like a government in waiting and convince anxious voters that they are not the incompetent and extreme group the BC NDP has made them out to be. Their campaign will most likely revolve around the BC NDP’s record and the province’s current fiscal position. New leader Lorne Doerkson appears to be a calming influence on the newly reunited party. If elected, the BC Conservatives have pledged to:

  • Not raise taxes on British Columbians;
  • Plan to turn BC into the energy superpower, doubling LNG production by 2032, tripling it by 2035;and
  • Remove the PST at the till on Canadian beer, wine and spirits.

Three other parties will make appearances in this election cycle: OneBC, CentreBC, and the BC Green Party. OneBC is a right-wing fringe party helmed by former BC Conservative MLA Dallas Brodie. Brodie stated that her party will not run candidates against eight B.C. Conservatives candidates with whose views she agrees with. The bulk of the MLAs who left the Conservative Party caucus to join CentreBC has returned to their original party. However, Elenore Sturko has remained and now leads the party.  She has been joined by former Green leader Andrew Weaver, who memorably sided with and then propped up NDP Premier John Horgan during his minority government.

BC Green Party

With the BC NDP moving closer to the centre on environmental issues, there is a good opportunity for the BC Greens to make inroads this election. Led by Emily Lowan and holding two seats before the writ was dropped, they could seize an opportunity to call out the NDP’s shift toward big business and LNG as the government desperately searches for business revenue to tax.

The Challenge

One challenge faced by all the parties is candidate recruitment.

By calling the provincial election last-minute and during the province-wide municipal elections, the pool of candidates is much smaller than usual. Compounding this issue is that six NDP MLAs; two BC Conservative MLAs; and one Green MLA have chosen not to seek re-election. While the central campaigns may be up and running, the local campaigns are seeking candidates, recruiting campaign volunteers and (most glamorous) filing paperwork. Candidates will have to file by October 3 to appear on the ballot.

Next Steps

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