Election 2026: One Week Out, the CAQ Drops to Fourth Place and the PQ Holds the Lead
Summary of the Léger, Pallas Data and Synopsis polls, as of September 28, 2026
Key findings
- Léger (Sept. 25-27): PQ 30%, PLQ 26%, PCQ 18%, CAQ 16%. Compared with September 21, the PLQ gains 3 points and the CAQ loses 4, dropping it to fourth place.
- The PQ leads in all three polls: 30% (Léger), 30% (Synopsis), 27.3% (Pallas).
- Among francophones, the PQ’s lead is clear: 37% in Léger, ahead of the PCQ (19%) and the CAQ (18%), an 18-point lead. Synopsis (36%) and Pallas (33.5%) are consistent.
- The CAQ is down in every poll: 16% (Léger), 17% (Synopsis, tied with the PCQ) and 17.2% (Pallas). In Synopsis, it has lost 10 points since the start of the campaign.
- Appetite for change is at a high: 74% of Quebecers want a new party to lead Québec (65% on September 21, +9).
- Votes are hardening: 71% of decided voters say their choice is final (59% on September 21).
- Route127 projection (based on the Synopsis poll): PQ 67 seats (majority at 64), PLQ 34, PCQ 12, QS 8, CAQ 6.
A race that is shifting as election day nears
The CAQ falls from 20% to 16% in Léger, while the PLQ rises from 23% to 26% and the PCQ reaches 18%. The PQ remains stable and leads all rivals among francophones.
The pollsters differ most on the PLQ: 26% in Léger, versus 22% in Synopsis and 20.2% in Pallas. They also differ on Québec solidaire: under 10% in Léger and Pallas, but 13% in Synopsis. These gaps are probably explained by methodology (online panel versus telephone) and by how undecided voters are allocated.
Perceptions of the leaders have moved faster than voting intentions. According to Synopsis, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads on all six leadership attributes measured. In addition, 54% of Quebecers have an unfavourable opinion of Christine Fréchette, who has lost 6 to 11 points in every category. Route127 projects her losing in Trois-Rivières.
The Québec City region: the battle to watch
- Pallas (Québec City CMA): PCQ 32.2%, PQ 23%, CAQ 21.8%, PLQ 7.7%.
- Synopsis (greater Québec City region): PCQ 31%, PQ 30%, CAQ 20%.
- Léger: the PCQ stood at 34% in the Québec City CMA in the September 21 wave. The regional figure for the latest wave was not available at the time of writing.
The conservative vote is concentrated (Capitale-Nationale, Chaudière-Appalaches, Centre-du-Québec). Léger considers a 12-member caucus, the threshold for parliamentary recognition, highly probable. The PCQ’s weak point is its young electorate, which votes less, and its weakness among voters aged 55 and over.
Change sets the mood, pocketbook issues set the agenda
In the September 21 wave, cost of living and housing (53%) and improving public services (46%) topped the list of issues.
Advance voting takes place September 27 and 28, and the general election is October 5.
What this changes
- The PQ remains the most likely government, possibly with a majority. Its lead among francophones, where its vote is efficient, matters more than its raw percentage. Hardening voter commitment (71% final choices) narrows the other parties’ room to manoeuvre.
- The PLQ could form the Official Opposition. It becomes the federalist alternative to the PQ. Léger places it second, and Route127 gives it 34 seats.
- The PCQ becomes a parliamentary force, especially in the Québec City region. Its weight in the National Assembly will be real, even if it plays no central role in forming the government.
- The CAQ loses its electoral base, not just points. Many current political staff and officials could disappear, and organizations will need to rebuild relationships with new ministries and ministerial offices.
Methodology
| Léger / Le Journal / TVA | Pallas Data | Synopsis / La Presse |
Field dates | Sept. 25-27, 2026 | Sept. 25-26, 2026 | Sept. 24-27, 2026 |
Sample size | 1,001 | 1,192 | 1,000 |
Method | Online | Interactive voice response (landlines and cell phones) | Online panels |
Weighting | Age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, children in household | 2021 Census | Age, sex, mother tongue, education, region |
Margin of error | ± 3.10% (probability-sample equivalent), 19 times out of 20 | ± 2.8%, 95% confidence (higher for subsamples) | Not specified (non-probability panel) |
Undecided | Results among decided voters | 7.9% shown (separate table excluding undecided) | 15% allocated |
Notes
- Figures are calculated on different bases (decided voters, undecided allocated or not). Direct comparison between pollsters is therefore indicative only.
- Regional subsamples are fragile, for example 230 unweighted respondents for the Québec City CMA in Pallas.
- An online panel has no margin of error in the strict sense. The margin cited is a comparison equivalent.
- The data on issues (cost of living, public services) and the PCQ’s 34% in the Québec City CMA come from the September 21 Léger wave.
Sources:
Léger/Le Journal/TVA poll; Pallas Data; Synopsis-La Presse; Route127 projection.
- Léger: Leger 360 – Septembre 20 2026 (PDF)
Open - Pallas: Pallas Data – Pallas-quebec-poll-pq-29-caq-24-plq-22-pcq-16-qs-9
- Synopsis-La Presse: Lapresse.ca: Elections Quebecoises 2026