Election 2026: Two Days Before the Vote, the PQ Holds the Lead, the PCQ Hits 20% and the CAQ Keeps Sliding
Key takeaways
- Léger (September 30 to October 1): PQ 29%, PLQ 25%, PCQ 20%, CAQ 14%, QS 11%. Compared with September 28, the PCQ gains 2 points, QS gains 2 and the CAQ loses 2.
- The PCQ reaches 20% in a Léger poll for the first time. It stood at 15% on August 31.
- The CAQ is at 14%, its worst result since Christine Fréchette became leader in April, according to Philippe J. Fournier (Qc125). It was at 24% at the end of August.
- Among francophones, the PQ leads with 35%, ahead of the PCQ (19%), the CAQ (15%) and the PLQ (15%), a 16-point lead.
- The desire for change reaches 77% (74% on September 28).
- 55% of Quebecers expect the PQ to win (+7 points).
- Route127 projection (updated October 1): PQ 71 seats (majority at 64), PLQ 35, PCQ 15, QS 5, CAQ 1. Thirteen ridings are within 3 points.
Voting intentions (decided voters) and seat projection
Party | Léger Oct. 3 | Léger Sept. 28 | Change | Francophones | Seats (Route127) |
PQ | 29% | 30% | -1 | 35% | 71 |
PLQ | 25% | 26% | -1 | 15% | 35 |
PCQ | 20% | 18% | +2 | 19% | 15 |
CAQ | 14% | 16% | -2 | 15% | 1 |
QS | 11% | 9% | +2 | 14% | 5 |
Sources: Léger/Le Journal/TVA (September 30 to October 1, 2026, n=1,000, 892 decided voters); Route127 (October 1, 2026).
A campaign ending without Péquiste momentum
The PQ stands at 29% and has barely moved during the campaign: it has hovered between 29% and 30% in Léger polls since the end of August. The movement of the past week is happening behind it.
The PLQ (25%) slips one point after its September rebound. It dominates among non-francophones (56%) and in the Montreal region (34%), but remains far from power.
The PCQ has the late-campaign momentum. It has gained 5 points since August 31 and now leads the CAQ by 6 points. Éric Duhaime ranks second as the leader who best represents change (20%) and as the leader who ran the best campaign over the past seven days (19%).
For the CAQ, the situation is difficult. Christine Fréchette is the leader who least represents change (6%), and only 12% of Quebecers see her as the best premier, down from 23% on September 7. Québec solidaire (11%) has mixed prospects: it leads among 18-34 year-olds (26%), a group that votes less often.
- The PQ has hit both its floor and its ceiling.The party never built real momentum during the campaign, even though it is heading toward a win on Monday.
- The PLQ continues to rebuild. Léger puts its support among francophones at 15%, compared with roughly 4% or 5% in 2022. Mr. Fournier sees modest but real progress, after a stretch in the wilderness comparable to a sports team rebuilding.
- The PCQ surge could leave a lasting mark. At 20%, the party is approaching a “payoff zone,” where several ridings could tip. He points out that the PQ needs certain center-right ridings, such as those in Centre-du-Québec, to reach 64 seats: strong conservative turnout could block that path. The PCQ also draws 20% among non-francophones, but that vote risks being inefficient.
- The CAQ’s collapse continues. The party is last in Greater Montreal, last in the Quebec City region and 14 points behind the PQ in the regions. Among voters 55 and over, it has lost 14 points since late August (23%), trailing the PQ (29%) and the PLQ (27%). He also notes that Ms. Fréchette has lost 11 points in the best-premier ranking since September 5.
The Quebec City region: the PCQ in front
Léger puts the PCQ at 37% in the Quebec City CMA, ahead of the PQ (28%), the PLQ (18%), the CAQ (8%) and QS (8%). It was at 34% on September 21. However, this figure rests on a subsample of 286 unweighted respondents (99 weighted) and should be read with caution. It is nonetheless consistent with last week’s Pallas and Synopsis polls.
The conservative vote is concentrated in the Capitale-Nationale, Chaudière-Appalaches and central Quebec. The PCQ scores best among 35-54 year-olds (26%) and is at just 15% among those 55 and over. It drops to 18% among voters “certain to vote” (versus 20% among those with a firm choice), while the PQ rises to 31%: turnout will be a key factor for the conservatives.
What this changes
The PQ is the most likely government, probably with a majority. Its strength comes from the efficiency of its francophone vote, especially outside Montreal, more than from its raw percentage. Route127 gives it 71 seats with roughly 30% of the probable vote.
The PLQ would form the official opposition in most scenarios. Route127 gives it 35 seats, making it the federalist alternative to the PQ.
The PCQ establishes itself in the National Assembly. With 15 projected seats, it would clear the threshold for parliamentary recognition (12 MNAs), with its weight concentrated in the Quebec City region.
The CAQ risks losing most of its caucus (1 projected seat). For organizations, this means rebuilding relationships with new ministries and cabinets starting with the post-October 5 transition.
Watch point: thirteen ridings are within 3 points. The size of the Péquiste majority and the split between the PLQ and PCQ will depend on vote efficiency and turnout. Election day is Monday, October 5.
Methodology
| Léger / Le Journal / TVA | Route127 |
Type | Poll | Seat projection (simulator) |
Fieldwork / update | September 30 to October 1, 2026 | October 1, 2026 |
Sample | 1,000 respondents (892 decided voters) | Not specified |
Mode | Online (LEO panel) | Not specified |
Weighting | Age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, children in household | Probable electorate |
Margin of error | ± 3.10% (probabilistic equivalent), 19 times out of 20 | Not specified |
Notes:
- Route127 percentages refer to the probable electorate (people who actually vote) and intentionally differ from published polls. The October 1 projection predates the October 3 Léger poll; Qc125 planned to update its own projection with the new data.
- Regional subgroups are fragile (Quebec City CMA: 286 unweighted respondents).
- This update relies on the final Léger poll. Pallas and Synopsis data have not been updated since the September 28 summary.