Ontario Fall Economic Statement 2025
The Financial Landscape
Ontario Finance Minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, tabled his government’s 2025 Fall Economic Statemen. A Plan to Protect Ontario. The document lays out the government’s plan create a more competitive, resilient, and self-reliant economy by cutting red tape, investing in infrastructure, supporting workers, improving services and making life more affordable. It proposes to do this while taking a fiscally responsible and balanced approach despite ongoing economic uncertainty caused by tariffs.
Ontario’s 2025–26 deficit is projected to be $13.5 billion — an improvement of $1.1 billion from the outlook published in the 2025 Budget. The government is forecasting a deficit of $7.8 billion in 2026–27 and a surplus of $0.2 billion in 2027–28. The Statement contained a lot of updates on previously announced programs and a few new spending commitments.
Protect Workers and Businesses from Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty
- Supporting sectors affected by U.S. tariffs through the $5 billion Protecting Ontario Account. In August, the government launched the initial $1 billion of the Protect Ontario Financing Program (POFP), which is already supporting Ontario-based businesses directly impacted by higher tariff rates in the steel, aluminum, copper and auto sectors by helping them keep their doors open and keep workers on the job. The government is now developing the second and third streams, to be supported by the remaining $4 billion. These streams will fortify Ontario’s economic resilience, fuel innovation, and fast-track high-growth firms to sharpen Ontario’s global edge.
- Continuing to invest $20 million in the Protect Ontario Workers Employment Response (POWER) Centres to provide access to training and upskilling to workers affected by, or at risk of, layoffs. For the first time, Ontario will be able to launch a centre proactively before a layoff has occurred with the ability to respond within 24 hours. This year, 10 of these centres were operational across Ontario, helping almost 15,000 workers.
- Ensuring communities and local industries get support to navigate challenges from trade disruptions through the Trade-Impacted Communities Program (TICP), which provides up to $40 million in funding, flexible and tailored to the needs of individual communities and local industries. The program supports community projects that improve local resilience, as well as large scale projects to grow and transform local clusters and industrial supply chains.
Protect Ontario by Building the Most Competitive Economy in the G7
- Powering Ontario’s Affordable Energy Future In June 2025, the Ontario government released Energy for Generations, the province’s first-ever integrated energy plan — a comprehensive roadmap that brings together electricity, natural gas, hydrogen and other energy sources under a single coordinated strategy to meet future energy needs. The province is also taking action to prioritize electricity investments as a result of increasing demand that supports the province’s economic interests, including those that create high-quality jobs, assist in domestic data hosting and strengthen Ontario’s position in the digital economy. This Canada-first plan will prioritize approvals for data centres that deliver measurable benefits to both local communities and to the province’s long-term competitiveness. This will include good-paying jobs for the people of Ontario, securing local data storage and creating a stronger, more competitive economy.
- Leveraging Hydrogen to Power Jobs, Growth and Energy Security – In March 2025, Ontario announced a new $30 million round of the Hydrogen Innovation Fund to support the integration of low-carbon hydrogen into the electricity grid and the broader use of hydrogen, such as in transportation and heavy industry. Ontario has asked the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) to provide recommendations for a hydrogen interruptible rate pilot that could offer hydrogen producers discounted electricity rates in exchange for reducing consumption during peak demand periods. The province is also exploring options to regulate hydrogen pipelines.
- Positioning Ontario’s Defence Industry for Growth Further – Ontario is exploring the development of other potential new supports, including tax incentives, to spur greater investment by industry in critical technologies that underpin modern defence and resilience — which could include artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, autonomous systems, and advanced sensing. These technologies are not only vital for national security but are also drivers of high-quality jobs and long-term economic growth. Ontario will also engage the federal government in support of areas critical to defence. This includes wider national security objectives such as energy generation and transmission, cybersecurity, as well as investment in resilient trade infrastructure. The government will also look for opportunities to enhance the province’s investment climate, for example, by strengthening supply chains and adopting innovative and flexible procurement models that prioritize Ontario-made equipment and raw materials.
- Investing in National Defence Technologies Through Venture Ontario – As part of the 2025 Ontario Budget, the government announced an additional investment of $90 million in venture capital (VC) funding through Venture Ontario. This includes $50 million to Ontario-based VC funds focused on technologies that support national defence and related technologies such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. This investment will support next-generation technologies, enhance Ontario’s competitiveness and strengthen economic resilience in the face of U.S.-imposed tariffs.
- Ontario is investing an additional $100 million in the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF) to further help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) diversify into new markets and strengthen trade resiliency. This brings total program funding to $150 million over three years, starting in 2025–26. The increased support will enable businesses affected by U.S. tariffs to pivot production, forge new sales partnerships, and expand interprovincial trade.
- Supporting Local Businesses and “Buy Ontario” – The government is stepping up to protect Ontario in response to U.S.-imposed tariffs by deploying immediate strategies to boost investment attraction and strengthen the province’s supply chains for long-term growth. Ontario is taking every necessary step to defend the interests of the people of Ontario and protect the economy and jobs. Investments will focus on made-in-Ontario goods and services, leveraging the estimated $30 billion of annual procurement spend, and Ontario’s procurement agency, Supply Ontario.
- Ontario is also continuing to reduce barriers and provide companies in the province with greater access to public procurement opportunities with the Building Ontario Businesses Initiative (BOBI). BOBI, which includes the Industrial Regional and Technology Benefit (IRTB), helps Ontario businesses sell more goods and services and create jobs in their local communities. Under BOBI, public-sector buyers either give preference to Ontario businesses for goods and services, or use weighted domestic criteria (such as environmental standards, labour protections, and safety) to level the playing field for Ontario businesses. Supply Ontario is also sourcing more products and services locally to reduce reliance on global supply chains, ensuring critical goods remain available within the province. To further protect domestic producers, the province has temporarily restricted public-sector procurement from U.S. businesses in response to U.S. tariffs.
- Adopting Innovations in Artificial Intelligence Responsibly – As the province embraces transformational and powerful artificial intelligence (AI) tools to help build a better province, Ontario is committed to implementing guardrails to ensure that AI systems are used transparently, accountably and responsibly in both the public and broader public sectors. In January 2025, Ontario brought the Enhancing Digital Security and Trust Act, 2024 (EDSTA) into force. The EDSTA builds a foundation to support the responsible use of AI. This legislation establishes Ontario as a leading Canadian jurisdiction in the governance and use of AI in a transparent, responsible and accountable way. As Ontario advances its digital economy, the government is embracing the growth of the data centre sector as a strategic opportunity to drive investment, innovation and job creation.
- Ontario is moving forward with its largest-ever infrastructure plan, over $201 billion in investments across 10 years, to build highways, transit, and community infrastructure that keep people working, strengthen the economy, and prepare the province for long-term growth.
- Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program – Ontario is investing another $1.6 billion, doubling this program to $4 billion, to build the infrastructure needed for housing, including roads, bridges, and water systems. Since its launch, the program has helped enable construction of up to 800,000 homes across Ontario. Municipalities can also access $1 billion in loans through Infrastructure Ontario to finance water and housing-related projects.
- Expanding Access to EV Chargers– Ontario is investing over $180 million to install 1,300 new EV charging ports in small and mid-sized communities, including 190 in Northern Ontario. Chargers will be located at arenas, hospitals, and parks to support the growing EV and battery manufacturing sector and expand clean transportation access province-wide.
- HST Relief for First-Time Home Buyers – Ontario is working with the federal government to eliminate the full 13% HST for first-time buyers on new homes up to $1 million. This measure could save families up to $80,000 and make home ownership more attainable for young Ontarians.
- Combatting and Preventing Auto Theft – Ontario is cracking down on auto theft with $18 million in funding for police services and the creation of a Major Auto Theft Prosecution Response Team targeting organized crime. New laws will allow police to seize keyless entry devices used in thefts, protecting communities and holding offenders accountable.
- Advancing Ontario’s Primary Care Action Plan – Through a $2.1 billion plan, Ontario is expanding primary care access so that everyone can have a family doctor or care team by 2029. Key initiatives include:
- $235 million in 2025–26 to create or expand 130 primary care teams, connecting over 300,000 people to ongoing care.
- $300 million over four years to build up to 17 new community-based teaching clinics, combining patient care with hands-on training.
- $250 million for 75 additional care teams connecting another 500,000 people to clinicians.
- Investing in Hospitals and Health Infrastructure – Over the next decade, Ontario is investing $56 billion in health infrastructure, including $43 billion in capital grants, to deliver 3,000 new hospital beds and support more than 50 major hospital projects province-wide.
- Delivering Public Services More Efficiently – The OPS is exploring and applying modern technology, including artificial intelligence, to improve efficiency and consistency of service delivery. The government is reforming permitting processes through One Project, One Process, speeding up approvals for major projects, and applying Lean Methodology to improve efficiency. A new effort will crowdsource ideas from frontline public servants to make government more responsive and focused on real results for people and businesses.