In the last election, Eby’s NDP barely defeated the upstart BC Conservatives, who were led by ex-BC Liberal cabinet minister John Rustad. Rustad took the party from the political fringes to just a few seats away from government. Unfortunately, Rustad spent much of his time as Opposition Leader fending off caucus revolts and resigned in December 2025. This triggered a leadership race, which was narrowly won by former federal cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay. Findlay resigned last weekend, after four months at the helm of the BC Conservatives, suffering a similar fate as her predecessor.

The BC Conservatives head into the election led by Lorne Doerkson, a two-term MLA for Cariboo-Chilcotin. The majority of caucus recommended him as leader, and he stepped into the role late Sunday night. If the Conservatives win, he will be Premier. The party would then have to decide how to proceed with a leadership process, either keeping him or holding another leadership race.

Amid the last two years of Conservative turmoil, eight former BC Conservative MLAs, led by former leadership candidate Peter Milobar, formed a new political party. Last week, this party merged with the centrist group CentreBC. Its leader, a former MLA, surrendered the leadership to Milobar. Late night negotiations between CentreBC and the BC Conservatives resulted in a merger and they run a unified slate to defeat the NDP.

The CentreBC MLAs were not the first to break away from the BC Conservatives. Dallas Brodie, the lone non-NDP Vancouver MLA, leads OneBC. Brodie and other BC Conservative party members on the far right of the party, saw Indigenous land claims and reconciliation as their priority issue. Their language and views on these issues were unacceptable to former leader John Rustad, and they were removed from the party. After the election was announced MLA Brent Chapman joined OneBC as well. Although this party only holds two seats, Brodie’s party could be a spoiler, splitting the vote and costing Conservatives seats.

The BC Greens will also be in the mix this election. Their leader, Emily Lowan, has revitalized the provincial party, which struggled in the years since Andrew Weaver’s retirement. A strong Green vote could cost the NDP some seats in the urban Lower Mainland or on Vancouver Island.

Eby has rolled the dice and hopes the conflicts to his right will put him back in office for four more years with a solid majority. The election should silence most of his internal critics for the duration of the campaign, but he will need to win big to keep the peace after a re-election victory. He could be right. He also could be left on the opposition benches wondering if he made the biggest error of all.