The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is expected to win a comfortable majority mandate, with a projected 92 seats (76 to 102). This majority would allow it to pursue its major projects, such as transportation with the 3rd link in Quebec City, and to fulfill its electoral promises, such as tax cuts for the first two levels of taxation, as well as its overhaul of the health care offer, such as home care and the opening of two private medical centers. The CAQ government would also have the ability to single-handedly appoint key public office holders requiring the approval of 2/3 of the National Assembly: the Ethics Commissioner, the Lobbyist Commissioner, the Chief Electoral Officer, the Public Protector and the Auditor General.
Nevertheless, the CAQ’s voting intention projections have been steadily declining since the beginning of the campaign, from about 43% to 38% by the end of the campaign. This is not enough to destabilize the party’s seat projections, however, given the division of the vote within Quebec’s five-party political system. This drop in voting intentions can certainly be attributed to the poor performance of leader François Legault in the two televised debates, although in the second debate his performance was more convincing. The CAQ is expected to take most of the regional ridings, including those in the Quebec City area, and may even steal some seats from the Quebec Liberal Party in the Montreal area. The CAQ’s typical electorate is older (55 and over) and therefore tends to vote more than younger voters, which gives it a clear advantage.