Quebec Polls: PQ Leads the Race, But Support for a Referendum Remains Limited
Quebec's latest public opinion polls reveal an important political paradox. While the Parti Québécois (PQ) continues to lead voting intentions and is currently projected to win a majority government, a clear majority of Quebecers still oppose sovereignty if a referendum were held today.
The findings suggest that electoral support for the PQ should not automatically be interpreted as public support for Quebec independence.
Provincial Voting Intentions
Quebec Projections
According to a Pallas Data poll conducted on August 2, 2026, the PQ remains in first place with approximately one-third of decided voters.
With 64 seats required for a majority, the PQ would currently be positioned to form the next government. However, the projection includes a wide confidence interval (49–76 seats), indicating that many ridings remain highly competitive.
68 projected seats (49-76)
40 projected seats (35-48)
4 projected seats (0-18)
9 projected seats (6-14))
6 projected seats (2-8)
Quebecers Continue to Reject Sovereignty
A separate survey conducted by the Angus Reid Institute paints a different picture when Quebecers are asked directly about the province’s constitutional future.
If a referendum were held today…
Option | Support |
Remain in Canada | 63% |
Become an independent country | 26% |
Undecided / No answer | 11% |
The results indicate that nearly two-thirds of Quebecers would vote to remain within Canada, while only about one-quarter would support independence.
Electoral Success Does Not Equal a Referendum Mandate
The contrast between these two polls highlights one of the defining characteristics of Quebec politics.
The PQ can secure a parliamentary majority under Quebec’s first-past-the-post electoral system with roughly 30% of the popular vote, particularly if the opposition vote remains divided. However, this does not necessarily translate into majority public support for holding or winning a referendum on sovereignty.
For businesses, investors, and stakeholders monitoring Quebec’s political landscape, this distinction is significant. A PQ government could have the parliamentary capacity to advance its political agenda, but it would still face a public opinion environment in which constitutional change lacks majority support.
A Volatile Electoral Landscape
Although the PQ currently appears well positioned, the electoral map remains volatile.
The CAQ continues to attract close to 20% of voters but is currently penalized by the geographic distribution of its support. Many of its votes are concentrated in second-place finishes rather than victories.
As a result, even a modest shift of two to four percentage points, particularly between the PQ and the CAQ in suburban and regional ridings, could significantly alter the seat distribution. Such a movement could reduce the PQ to minority government territory while allowing the CAQ to regain a meaningful caucus.
With several weeks remaining before the election, issues such as affordability, economic performance, public services, and the prospect of a future referendum are expected to remain central to Quebec’s political debate.
Sources
- Pallas Data, Quebec Provincial Poll, August 2, 2026 (voting intentions and Qc125 seat projection).
- Angus Reid Institute, Unity or Separation: Quebec’s Constitutional Future, February 2026 (referendum voting intentions).
- Qc125: Qc125.ca | Philippe J. Fournier | Substack