Quebec voting intentions: PQ consolidates on several indicators amid a climate of change
Nearly two-thirds of Quebecers want a change of government. Two weeks before election day, voting intentions remain stable, but several campaign indicators are shifting: the Parti Québécois remains in the lead, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is gaining ground on multiple leadership measures, and the Conservative Party of Quebec is showing potential that exceeds its current vote share.
Highlights
- The PQ remains at 29% of voting intentions among decided voters. Among francophones, it stands at 37%, compared to 24% for the CAQ.
- Paul St-Pierre Plamondon reaches 26% as the leader who would make the best premier (+4), 27% as the leader who best embodies change (+3), and 25% as the leader who ran the best campaign over the past seven days (+10).
- The PCQ reaches 34% in the Quebec City metro area (RMR) and becomes the party most often cited as voters’ second choice, at 17% (+3).
- 65% of Quebecers want a change of government, up four points.
- Cost of living and housing top the list of issues likely to influence the vote (53%), followed by improving public services (46%).
A favorable week for PSPP, and new signs of potential for the PCQ
Provincial voting intentions are changing little, but perceptions of the leaders are shifting. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is gaining ground on three distinct indicators: fitness for the premier’s office, embodiment of change, and evaluation of his recent campaign. For now, this momentum has not translated into higher support for the PQ, which remains stable.
On the conservative side, the provincial result also remains unchanged. The picture looks different, however, when looking at the Quebec City metro area and second-choice preferences. This data suggests that a portion of the electorate views the PCQ as an option beyond its current level of support, though this does not mean these preferences will convert into votes.
Change dominates the mood, but the wallet dominates the issues
The desire for change is one of the defining features of this measurement. It poses a particular challenge for Christine Fréchette: while 65% want a new party to lead Quebec, she remains less often associated with change than the other main leaders.
That said, when asked directly what will influence their vote, economic concerns and public services clearly outrank other issues. The campaign is thus unfolding among an electorate strongly inclined toward change, but whose stated priorities remain concrete and everyday in nature.
The general election will be held on October 5, with advance voting on September 27 and 28.
What this changes
- PQ remains the most likely party to form the next government — PSPP’s leadership gains without a corresponding vote shift suggest a lead that’s consolidating rather than eroding.
- The PCQ becomes a “watch” file, not yet a priority — its rise as second choice (+3) and Quebec City metro strength point to latent conservative support that could activate late in the campaign or absorb a CAQ collapse regionally.
- CAQ’s problem is identity, not just numbers — trailing PQ badly among francophones (24% vs. 37%) and weakly linked to “change” puts Christine Fréchette in a difficult final stretch.
- Cost of living and public services dominate — not sector issues
Methodology
Online survey conducted from September 18 to 21, 2026, among 1,001 Quebec respondents aged 18 or older who are eligible to vote. Data were weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education, and presence of children in the household. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of no more than ± 3.10%, 19 times out of 20.