Quebec’s new economic vision 2025-2026
This 2025 government strategy paper outlines Quebec’s new economic vision in response to a shifting global context marked by:
A protectionist turn in U.S. policy under a new Trump administration, the global energy transition, and geopolitical realignments and technological revolutions. The central idea is to strengthen Quebec’s power meaning economic and energy sovereignty while ensuring prosperity and resilience.
1. Context and Diagnosis
The world economy is increasingly unstable: U.S. protectionism, post-pandemic inflation, reconfigured alliances, and mounting geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, China, “Global South”).
Despite this environment, Quebec’s economic record (2018–2024) is strong:
- +12.5% growth in non-residential business investment per capita (vs. –6.8% for the rest of Canada);
- +3.2% rise in real GDP per capita;
- +30% in average weekly earnings;
- +10.3% increase in real disposable income per person.
However, Quebec faces major challenges:
- overreliance on the U.S. market,
- weak productivity,
- aging SME ownership,
- slow digital automation,
- and excessive bureaucracy.
2. Four Economic Priorities
Expand renewable energy production massively;
- Accelerate the delivery of strategic projects with a more agile government;
- Grow and retain Quebec-owned firms, creating new champions;
- Seize new international opportunities to strengthen resilience and influence.
3. Renewable Energy – The Backbone of Quebec Power
Energy is positioned as the core of Quebec’s autonomy, prosperity, and national pride.
- Target: double electricity production by 2050.
Hydro-Québec’s 2035 plan includes:
- +60 TWh by 2035;
- Up to $200 billion in investments;
- Expansion of hydro, wind, solar, and bioenergy capacity;
- A landmark agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador (9,190 MW).
The 2025 Law on Responsible Governance of Energy Resources created a 2050 Integrated Energy Resources Management Plan (PGIRE).
Projected impact: $127 billion cumulative boost to Quebec’s GDP and $6 billion in recurring annual gains after 2050.
4. A More Effective and Agile State
- Introduction of a “fast-track” process for strategic economic projects.
- Massive effort to reduce bureaucracy, review outdated regulations, and simplify business procedures.
- The Goal: transform the state into a lean, high-performance administration, lowering costs and dependency on external consultants.
- Focus sectors: environmental permits, construction, agriculture, and manufacturing.
- New public-sector optimization plan: consolidate office space, internalize IT and cybersecurity expertise, and digitalize operations.
5. Growing and Retaining Quebec Companies
- A modern “Maîtres chez nous” approach Quebecers as masters of their economy.
- Support high-potential SMEs to become national champions while protecting them from foreign takeovers.
- Key players (CDPQ, Investissement Québec, Desjardins, Fonds FTQ) will coordinate to provide patient capital.
- Succession and ownership transfer are priorities (SME Plan 2025–2028, Repreneuriat Québec).
Development of innovation zones:
- Quantum (Sherbrooke),
- Microelectronics (Bromont),
- Aerospace (Longueuil/Mirabel),
- Energy transition (Shawinigan/Bécancour).
6. Diversifying Markets and Partnerships
- Strategic goal: reduce U.S. dependence while leveraging trade agreements (ACEUM, CETA, CPTPP).
- Bill 112 aims to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers and recognize professional qualifications across Canada.
- Promote a “Buy Quebec” policy and greater SME access to public procurement.
- Each dollar spent on a Quebec SME injects $0.66 back into the local economy, versus only $0.11 for multinationals.
7. Strengthening Strategic Infrastructure
Quebec Infrastructure Plan 2025–2035: record $164 billion over 10 years.
Priorities: healthcare, education, transport, and logistics.
Key projects:
- Contrecœur port terminal (8,000 construction jobs, 1,200 operational),
- Saguenay–St. Lawrence corridor,
- Labrador mining rail loop to support mineral exports.
- Digital sovereignty: expand computing capacity and local data hosting; promote AI adoption to raise productivity.
8. Two Strategic Economic Opportunities
Security and Defense
Following the 2025 Canada–EU Defense and Security Partnership, Canada commits up to 3.5% of GDP to defense by 2035 (~$150B).
Quebec aims to become a reliable defense partner via its advanced sectors:
- Aerospace (43,000 jobs; $22.8B in sales),
- Cybersecurity, AI, quantum computing,
- Naval construction (Davie shipyard),
- Optics and photonics.
Quebec seeks a major share of federal and international defense contracts, supporting hundreds of SMEs and stimulating R&D.
Critical and Strategic Minerals (CSMs)
Quebec holds:
- 79% of Canada’s graphite reserves,
- 81% of lithium,
- 80% of niobium.
Objective: become North America’s CSM hub, emphasizing local transformation (processing).
- Estimated $8B in new investments → +$2.3B GDP impact during construction phase.
- Integration into North American EV battery chains (Nemaska Lithium, Nouveau Monde Graphite, etc.).
- Promotion of low-carbon aluminum and green steel, leveraging Hydro power to produce strategic metals for defense and clean tech.
9. Conclusion – Toward a New Era
- Quebec must be more autonomous, more digital, more productive, and less dependent on fossil fuels and the U.S. market.
- The state’s role is shifting from heavy-handed intervention to strategic coordination.
- The energy transition and technological innovation are the new levers of national power.
- The vision is for a rooted yet globally engaged Quebec, exporting not only goods but also expertise, while fostering domestic value creation.