The main issues on voters’ minds are health care and the high cost of living – the same issues that are top of mind across the country. According to Angus Reid’s polling, Sask. Party supporters are much more likely to also prioritize the economy (39%), government spending (25%), public safety (28%) and energy policy (21%) while Sask. NDP supporters are focused on education (44%) and poverty (21%).[1]  These contrasting priorities reflect the policy proposals and spending announcements that have been rolled out pre-writ. 

The NDP will be crying out that it’s time for change, also calling for increased affordability with an emphasis on improved health care (in the land of Tommy Douglas, father of Canadian Medicare) and protecting kids’ future.  NDP Leader Beck has promised an NDP government will eliminate the provincial sales tax (PST) on groceries and children’s clothing,[2] protect renters, temporarily suspend the Gas Tax, create a new school food program[3], and have made a $2 billion education funding pledge.

Moe will spend the campaign advocating for continued growth, strong financial management, and public safety.  The Sask. Party’s pre-election spending promises include a $17.1 million funding package for safer communities, $3.8 million in funding towards new frontline officers for the Regina Police Service, and a pilot project to expand the scope of specialized pharmacists.[4] 

A number of other parties are also running candidates in the upcoming provincial election, including the Green Party, Buffalo Party, and Saskatchewan United Party (SUP).[5] Currently these parties are all polling below 5% but they may have a big impact at the riding level. For example, two former Sask. Party MLAs have announced they will run for the SUP.[6][7] Situations like these can cause vote splits and have a big impact on local election results.

This election will be the first election since the provincial constituency boundaries have been redrawn. This is done every ten years in to ensure every constituency has roughly the same number of voters in accordance with the The Constituency Boundaries Act, 1993.[8] The commission was appointed in 2022 and this the first election the new boundaries will apply to. There has been speculation that the new boundaries create a deeper urban/rural divide and that the Sask. Party will not need to attract new supporters from urban areas to form a majority government.[9] 

Despite the close poll numbers, it is very likely that the Sask. Party will likely be returned to government with a fifth majority.[10]  After seventeen years in office as a party and six under the current Premier, the Moe-led Sask. Party faces stronger pressure for change from the Sask. NDP, a party that has been quite weak throughout the last 17-years.  If Moe’s message of strong growth prevails the Sask. Party will govern the province for over two decades uninterrupted – a feat not achieved in Canada this century.  If social worker and school trustee Beck rides to power, her call that it’s time for change will have successfully resonated with voters.

[1] Election 2024: Saskatchewan Party maintains lead over the opposition NDP, but the gap is narrowing

[2] Regina CTV News: Elimination of PST on groceries

[3] SaskToday: NDP pledges healthy school food program

[4] SaskToday: More pre-election announcements

[5] LeaderPost: Who’s running in the upcoming Saskatchewan general election

[6] Saskatoon CTV News: Two former MLAs to run under the Saskatchewan United banner

[7] PA Herald: Expert says two former Sask Party MLAs moving to sup might be a wrinkle for government

[8] Elections SK News

[9] The Star Phoenix: Move from moderation now defines Saskatchewan Party

[10] 338 Canada: Saskatchewan