Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives came to power with a minority in 2018 and secured a majority in 2020. His party also absorbed the People’s Alliance MLAs in 2022, a party that had supported the PCs on confidence measures during the minority term.

Liberal Leader Susan Holt won the party leadership in 2022 and secured a seat in the Legislature in 2023 by-election, though is now running in a Fredericton-area riding, up against Higgs’s former Director of Communications, Nicolle Carlin, the PC candidate. 

Approximately one-third of PC incumbent MLAs chose to not seek re-election in 2024, with the Liberal Party hopeful to switch these seats. 

The Green Leader, David Coon and his two caucus colleagues are seeking re-election, with hopes of expanding their numbers in the Legislative Assembly. Coon has said that would present a list of conditions to the Liberal Party if a minority legislature were to emerge, if their parties’ combined seat total could comprise a majority. 

Narrative Research polling from August 2024 showed 33% support for the PCs, 44% for the Liberals, 17% for the Greens, one percent for the People’s Alliance and four percent for the New Democratic Party.

A Nanos poll from the end of July, however, indicated a dead heat with the Liberals and PCs both at 36%, with the Greens at 14%, the People’s Alliance at five percent, and the NDP at 10 percent. 

Healthcare and affordability will be dominant themes in this campaign. 

The PCs, earlier in the summer, worked to offer a significant contrast from the Liberals by pledging cutting the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) from 15% to 13%.  The Liberals made a foray on the healthcare front by promising 30 collaborative healthcare clinics by 2028. 

There are 49 seats in the New Brunswick Legislature, and at dissolution, the PCs held 25 seats, the Liberals 16, the Greens three, with one independent and four vacancies. 

Liberal Leader Holt held her official campaign launch recently in Fredericton, and the PC campaign will kick off this evening in Quispamsis, the riding held by PC Leader Higgs. 

The Capital Hill Group will be providing regular updates as the campaign kicks into full swing.