The Newfoundland and Labrador 2025 Election
On Monday afternoon, Premier John Hogan visited the Lieutenant-Governor to dissolve the Legislature, and proceed to a general election which, by law, must occur by October 14th. This will be the shortest possible campaign, with 28 days until the Newfoundland and Labrador 2025 Election.
The Liberal Party
The Liberal Party will be seeking a fourth term, albeit with its third leader and premier since their initial win in 2015. Originally helmed by Dwight Ball, Dr. Andrew Furey later took on the role, then surprised observers by retiring from politics earlier this year and returning to his career as a surgeon.
John Hogan won the Liberal leadership earlier this spring against his former cabinet colleague John Abbott, who is not seeking re-election. A lawyer by trade, Hogan was elected to the House of Assembly in 2021 and defeated then-Progressive Conservative leader Ches Crosbie in the electoral district of Windsor Lake.
The Progressive Conservative Party
Progressive Conservative Leader Tony Wakeham was also initially elected to the Assembly in 2021, in the district of Stephenville-Port au Port. He won the leadership of the party in 2023, succeeding interim leader David Brazil, who led the party after the resignation of Crosbie. Wakeham was a businessman and healthcare executive prior to entering public life.
The New Democratic Party (NDP)
Jim Dinn is leader of the New Democratic Party, and was elected to the Assembly in 2019. He took on the role of interim leader after the resignation of Allison Coffin, following the 2021 election, and was later acclaimed as permanent leader. He was an educator and union leader prior to entering politics.
The Main Issues
One of the main issues that will define this election is the memorandum of understanding reached last year between Hydro Quebec and NL Hydro in relation to Churchill Falls. Announced last year by Quebec Premier Francois Legault and former premier Furey, the new deal would provide around $200 billion to Newfoundland over the next five decades, and also increase production with the development of the Gull Island Hydroelectric project. The previous agreement has been a longstanding source of tension in Newfoundland, with Hydro-Quebec’s figures noting that it sells power for 51 times what it pays for receiving the power from Churchill Falls. (Andrew Furey hits the road as sales work on Churchill Falls deal begins | CBC News)
Fault lines are now being exposed with government and other industry leaders supporting the deal, while others, including former premier Danny Williams, believe the deal heavily favours Quebec. Earlier this summer, Williams penned a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney noting the following: “The massively inequitable 1969 Churchill Falls agreement between these two entities and their respective governments has disadvantaged our province for more than 55 years to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. The psychological impacts on Newfoundlanders and Labradorians cannot be quantified. The 2024 framework agreement is actually worse again.” (Former NL premier Danny Williams pens letter to PM on Churchill Falls MOU | PNI Atlantic News)
Liberal leader Hogan is framing himself as the best leader to negotiate the hydro deal with Quebec, while PC leader Wakeham has pledged that a deal would be put to a referendum and is challenging Hogan to agree to the same. NDP leader Dinn initially was in favour of beginning negotiations; however, with the resignation of a member of the Churchill River Oversight Panel recently, Dinn now states that the independence of the panel is in doubt.
Conclusion
Newfoundland and Labrador faces immense budgetary woes with an updated forecast of a $626 million deficit for this fiscal year, much higher than the $372 million predicted in the spring budget. The provincial net debt is forecast to be $19.7 billion, up from the initial spring forecast of $19.4 billion.