The PQ still first, the CAQ slips to third at 21%, the PCQ at its all-time high at 17%
Two polls released 24 hours apart Léger, Le Journal de Québec, TVA and Pallas Data point to the same reading: the Parti Québécois holds first place without gaining ground, the Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Québec are fighting for second inside the margin of error, and the Conservative Party of Québec posts the highest score Léger has ever measured. Election day is set for October 5, 2026.
Provincial vote intentions Léger and Pallas
Party | Léger Sept. 14 | Change vs Sept. 7 | Pallas Data Sept. 13 | Two-poll average |
PQ | 29% | = | 26.5% | 27.8% |
PLQ | 23% | +1 | 22.9% | 23.0% |
CAQ | 21% | −2 | 22.6% | 21.8% |
PCQ | 17% | +2 | 15.7% | 16.4% |
QS | 10% | = | 11.0% | 10.5% |
Other party | 1% | = | 1.3% | 1.2% |
Léger: decided voters (n = 842). Pallas Data: decided and leaning (n = 1,055). The two-poll figure is a simple, unweighted average; totals may not add to 100% because of rounding.
Polls and aggregators: the vote projection
Party | Léger Sept. 14 | Pallas Sept. 13 | Pallas change | Qc125 vote projection (Sept. 13) no new seat projection | Route 127 vote projection and new seat projection (Sept. 14) |
PQ | 29% | 27% | ▼ 2 | 29% (26 – 33) | 28.66% (49) |
PLQ | 23% | 23% | ▲ 3 | 21% (18 – 23) | 21.65% (33) |
CAQ | 21% | 23% | ▼ 1 | 24% (21 – 27) | 24.89% (29) |
PCQ | 17% | 16% | ▲ 1 | 15% (13 – 17) | 15.25% (9) |
QS | 10% | 11% | = | 10% (8 – 12) | 9.55% (7) |
Léger: decided voters. Pallas: decided and leaning, rounded to whole numbers as Qc125 does. The Pallas change is measured against the Pallas poll of September 5, 2026 (PQ 29, CAQ 24, PLQ 20, PCQ 15, QS 11). Qc125: vote projection of September 13, 2026, range in brackets this is not a poll but a weighted aggregation. It does not yet account for the Léger poll released on September 14.
No seat projection this week by Qc125
Highlights
- The PQ leads in both polls (29% with Léger, 26.5% with Pallas) without gaining ground: a third straight week at 29% with Léger.
- The CAQ slips to 21% (−2) and falls behind the PLQ (23%, +1) with Léger. Pallas Data has the two parties in a statistical tie (22.6% versus 22.9%).
- The PCQ at 17% with Léger (+2 in one week): this is the highest score the firm has ever measured for Éric Duhaime’s party. Pallas Data puts it at 15.7%.
- Christine Fréchette has the worst week of the five leaders: best premier 19% (−4), best campaign of the week 16% (−5), trust to grow the economy 17% (−5).
- Éric Duhaime gains on nearly every indicator: change leader 15% (+3), best premier 13% (+2), second choice 14% (+3), deficit 19% (+3, first place), housing 12% (+5), cost of living 15% (+3, tied with PSPP).
- Québec City region: the PCQ takes 29% with Léger (second behind the PQ at 31%) and 31.1% with Pallas (first place).
- 61% want a change of government (+1), against 16% (−2) who want the status quo. That reaches 91% among PQ voters, 86% among PCQ voters, 83% among QS voters and 77% among PLQ voters but only 11% among CAQ voters.
- The vote is still soft: 56% call their choice final, 42% say it could still change.
- Tariffs: 60% see them as an important campaign issue (11% the most important). 71% back Mark Carney’s $28-billion counter-tariffs, and 52% say Carney is doing a good job against 24% for Christine Fréchette.
- Second choice (Léger): the CAQ remains the most common second choice (16%), ahead of the PQ (15%), the PCQ (14%, +3), the PLQ (14%, +1) and QS (14%). Among PQ voters, second choice goes first to the CAQ (26%) and QS (22%), not the PCQ (17%).
The leaders, indicator by indicator
Indicator (Léger) | PSPP | Fréchette | Milliard | Duhaime | Ghazal |
Best premier | 22% (−1) | 19% (−4) | 14% (+2) | 13% (+2) | 7% (=) |
Best embodies change | 24% (−1) | 12% (=) | 13% (=) | 15% (+3) | 10% (=) |
Best campaign (7 days) | 15% (=) | 16% (−5) | 8% (+2) | 12% (=) | 9% (+3) |
Tariffs / Québec’s interests | 18% (−1) | 22% (−2) | 11% (+1) | 10% (+2) | 4% (+1) |
Immigration | 23% (−2) | 11% (−3) | 11% (=) | 12% (+4) | 8% (+1) |
Economy and jobs | 17% (−1) | 17% (−5) | 14% (+1) | 11% (+2) | 5% (=) |
Spending and deficit | 16% (−1) | 10% (−1) | 12% (+1) | 19% (+3) | 5% (+1) |
Housing affordability | 14% (=) | 10% (−2) | 9% (−1) | 12% (+5) | 18% (+1) |
Cost of living | 15% (−2) | 10% (−3) | 10% (+1) | 15% (+3) | 10% (=) |
Léger, September 14, 2026. Changes in brackets are calculated against the most recent prior measure of each question (September 7, 2026, except “best embodies change”: August 11, 2026).
Campaign performance and vote solidity
Party | Best campaign (Pallas, to date) | Worst campaign (Pallas) | Net score (Pallas) | Vote locked in (Léger) |
PQ | 22.1% | 16.0% | +6.1 | 60% |
CAQ | 25.7% | 19.8% | +5.9 | 51% |
PCQ | 16.7% | 11.7% | +5.0 | 60% |
QS | 12.5% | 8.8% | +3.7 | 49% |
PLQ | 7.3% | 29.3% | −22.0 | 56% |
Don’t know | 15.7% | 14.4% | — | — |
Pallas Data measures the best and worst campaign since the start; Léger measures the best campaign of the past seven days and vote solidity among decided voters (n = 827).
What it changes
Two firms, two methods a web panel at Léger, interactive voice response at Pallas and one reading. The week’s movement does not belong to the PQ, which has plateaued, but to the CAQ, which drops two points and is watching its main asset since August deflate: its leader’s personal standing. Two questions should not be conflated, though. Léger asks who ran the best campaign over the past seven days, and Christine Fréchette falls five points there (16%). Pallas asks who has run the best campaign since the start, and the CAQ comes first (25.7%). The CAQ therefore keeps a campaign credit, but it had a bad week.
The gap between the first and fourth party is now only 12 points with Léger and 10.8 points with Pallas.
The real fault line is regional. In the Québec City CMA, the PCQ carries 29% to 31%: enough to decide a dozen close ridings without necessarily winning many itself. Outside Montréal and Québec City, the CAQ (22% to 26.6%) remains the second force behind a PQ holding firm at 34% in both polls. In the Montréal CMA, the PLQ leads (29.6% to 32%) on a non-francophone floor of 58% to 61%, but that floor is heavily concentrated on the island. The two polls disagree on the PQ/PCQ ranking in the capital a discrepancy that probably comes down to subsample size, but one to watch.
Finally, the factor that calls for caution 21 days out: 42% of decided voters say they could still change their mind, a level well above the same stage in 2022. The CAQ and QS are the most exposed. Neither poll points to a locked-in majority for anyone.
This week’s polls
Léger web poll – Le Journal de Montréal / Le Journal de Québec – TVA Nouvelles, September 10 to 13, 2026, released September 14, 2026
1,013 Québec voters aged 18 and over (842 decided; 827 for vote solidity and second choices), recruited at random from the LEO online panel. Results weighted by age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household. Comparable margin of error of ± 3.08%, 19 times out of 20.
Leger 360 Rapport Intentions de Vote (PDF)
Open
Pallas Data poll, fielded September 12, 2026, released September 13, 2026
1,085 adults aged 18 and over living in Québec, reached by interactive voice response (IVR) on landlines and cellphones. Results weighted using 2021 census demographics. Margin of error of ± 3%, at a 95% confidence level. “Decided and leaning” base: n = 1,055.
Poll aggregators
- Qc125.com (last updated: September 13, 2026): qc125.ca
- Route127.ca (last updated: September 14, 2026): Route127.ca