Three parties, seven points apart, 26 days to the vote
Provincial Voting Intentions
51-53 projected seats
25-27 projected seats
30-33 projected seats
9-11 projected seats
7-8 projected seats
Key findings
- 56 % of decided voters now call their choice final, up from 55 % last week and 47 % in June. That leaves 41 % still flexible: 49 % of QS supporters, 45 % of CAQ supporters.
- Christine Fréchette pulls even with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 23 % as best premier (up five points since August 11) and is seen as having run the week’s best campaign, with 21 % of mentions against 15 % for PSPP.
- Trump’s tariffs: an important issue for 61 %, yet 52 % say it will have little or no bearing on how they vote.
- 60 % still want a change of government, against 18 % who want the current one to stay.
Why it matters
Voting intentions have been frozen for two weeks, but the balance among the leaders has flipped. Fréchette leads on tariffs (24 %) and the economy (22 %); St-Pierre Plamondon leads on immigration (25 %) and narrowly on the deficit (17 %, against 16 % for Duhaime); Ghazal leads on housing (17 %). No leader owns the full field. Across the 127 ridings, the two aggregators converge: Qc125 projects 53 seats for the PQ, 30 for the PLQ, 25 for the CAQ, 11 for the PCQ and 8 for QS; Route 127 lands at 51 for the PQ, 33 for the PLQ, 27 for the CAQ, 9 for the PCQ and 7 for QS. Neither hands the PQ a majority. Route 127 puts the odds of a PQ minority government at 62 % against 13 % for a majority, and Qc125 has the PQ finishing first in 88 % of simulations but with a majority in only 16 %. Twenty-eight ridings are within three points. And in the Quebec City region, the PCQ is strong enough (26 %) to pull votes away from both the PQ and the CAQ in several close ridings, which can decide who wins without the PCQ taking the seat itself.
This week’s polling
Léger online poll for Le Journal and TVA, September 4 to 6, 2026, published September 7.
1,008 Quebec voters (859 decided; 840 for vote firmness and second choices), LEO panel, weighted. Comparable margin of error of ± 3.09 %, 19 times out of 20. Treat regional readings with caution: the Quebec City CMA has 301 respondents weighted to 99.
Pallas Data poll, published September 7, 2026.
Pallas Data surveyed 1,100 adults aged 18 and over living in Quebec on September 5, 2026, through interactive voice response (IVR) telephone interviews conducted on landlines and mobile phones. Results were weighted using 2021 census demographic data and are intended to be representative of Quebec’s adult population. The margin of error is +/- 3 % at a 95 % confidence level. Margins of error are larger for subsamples. Totals may not add to 100 % because of rounding.
Poll aggregators
Seat projections: Qc125, September 7, 2026; Route 127, September 8, 2026.