Three parties within seven points, one month from the vote
The PQ holds the lead, the CAQ has erased its spring collapse, the Liberals are slipping and four voters in ten have yet to settle on a choice.
Key findings
- PQ 29% (-1), CAQ 24% (+1), PLQ 22% (-1), PCQ 15% (-1), QS 10% (+3).
- 42% of decided voters could still switch 58% among QS supporters, 54% among the CAQ’s.
- Trump’s tariffs: an important issue for 53%, but the single most important one for only 10%.
- 66% back Carney’s counter-tariffs even when told they would push prices up.
What it changes
Vote mobility runs mainly along the nationalist axis: 36% of PQ voters name the CAQ as their second choice, and 30% of CAQ voters name the PQ. The PCQ, meanwhile, peaks at 30% in the Quebec City region geography will decide more than the provincial average will.
Léger Survey
Léger online survey, August 28 to 31, 2026, among 1,008 Quebec voters (882 decided; 853 for vote solidity and second choices), LEO panel, weighted results. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of ± 3.09%, 19 times out of 20. Regional readings call for caution: the Quebec City CMA counts 303 respondents weighted down to 98.